The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, Ai, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk (Hardcover)

The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk.

The Age of Prediction is about two powerful, and symbiotic, trends: the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live. Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections.

As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences. The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks--genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally. Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people's medical risks, and stock dynamics.

預測工具和演算法的強大力量及其對風險的矛盾影響。《預測時代》探討了兩個強大且相互依存的趨勢：人工智慧和大數據的快速發展和應用，以提升預測能力，以及這些更好的預測對我們對風險的理解和生活方式產生的常常矛盾的影響。從量化投資和精準醫學的重大突破開始，本書探討了預測技術如何在悄無聲息中從根本上重塑我們的世界，從打擊犯罪和戰爭到監測個人健康和選舉。隨著預測能力的增強，它也改變了相應風險的性質，產生了意想不到的後果。《預測時代》詳細介紹了預測的確定性如何帶來自滿或甚至增加風險，例如基因組分析可能導致不健康的生活方式，或者GPS可能鼓勵不夠專注的駕駛。隨著預測能力的增強，也帶來了一定程度的神秘感，作者們提出了更窄的風險如何影響市場、保險或風險容忍度的問題。我們能否將風險降低到零？我們應該試圖嗎？本書為回答這些基本問題奠定了有趣的基礎，並介紹了驅動這些未來預測的最新工具和技術，有時使用新穎的跨學科工具來繪製癌症生長、人們的醫療風險和股票動態的圖像。

Igor Tulchinsky is founder, chairman, and CEO of WorldQuant, a quantitative investment firm based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut. He is the author of Finding Alphas: A Quantitative Approach to Building Trading Strategies and The UnRules: Man, Machines and the Quest to Master Markets.

Christopher E. Mason is Professor of Genomics, Physiology, and Biophysics at Weill Cornell Medicine and the Director of the WorldQuant Initiative for Quantitative Prediction. He also holds affiliate appointments at the New York Genome Center, Yale Law School, and the Consortium for Space Genetics at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Mason is the author of The Next 500 Years: Engineering Life to Reach New Worlds.

Igor Tulchinsky是WorldQuant的創始人、董事長和首席執行官，該公司是一家位於康涅狄格州Old Greenwich的量化投資公司。他是《Finding Alphas: A Quantitative Approach to Building Trading Strategies》和《The UnRules: Man, Machines and the Quest to Master Markets》的作者。

Christopher E. Mason是Weill Cornell Medicine的基因組學、生理學和生物物理學教授，也是WorldQuant Initiative for Quantitative Prediction的主任。他還在紐約基因組中心、耶魯法學院和哈佛醫學院的太空基因組學聯盟擔任聯合任命。Mason博士是《The Next 500 Years: Engineering Life to Reach New Worlds》的作者。