Reasoning about Uncertainty
暫譯: 不確定性推理
Joseph Y. Halpern
- 出版商: MIT
- 出版日期: 2005-08-12
- 售價: $2,200
- 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $2,090
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 497
- 裝訂: Paperback
- ISBN: 0262582597
- ISBN-13: 9780262582599
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商品描述
Description:
Uncertainty is a fundamental and unavoidable feature of daily life; in order to deal with uncertaintly intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty; the material is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
Halpern begins by surveying possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures. He considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; this leads to a discussion of qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. He considers not only the uncertainty of a single agent but also uncertainty in a multi-agent framework. Halpern then considers the formal logical systems for reasoning about uncertainty. He discusses knowledge and belief; default reasoning and the semantics of default; reasoning about counterfactuals, and combining probability and counterfactuals; belief revision; first-order modal logic; and statistics and beliefs. He includes a series of exercises at the end of each chapter.
Table of Contents:
Preface xiii 1 Introduction and Overview 1 2 Representing Uncertainty 11 3 Updating Beliefs 69 4 Independence and Bayesian Networks 121 5 Expectation 149 6 Multi-Agent Systems 189 7 Logics for Reasoning about Uncertainty 239 8 Beliefs, Defaults, and Counterfactuals 287 9 Belief Revision 331 10 First-Order Modal Logic 365 11 From Statistics to Beliefs 395 12 Final Words 431 References 435 Glossary of Symbols 459 Index 463
商品描述(中文翻譯)
**描述:**
不確定性是日常生活中一個基本且不可避免的特徵;為了智慧地處理不確定性,我們需要能夠表達它並對其進行推理。在本書中,Joseph Halpern 探討了表達不確定性的正式方法,並考慮了各種推理邏輯。雖然所提出的觀念以定義和定理的形式進行了形式化,但重點在於表達和推理不確定性的哲學;這些材料對於計算機科學、人工智慧、經濟學(特別是博弈論)、數學、哲學和統計等許多領域的研究人員和學生都是可接觸且相關的。
Halpern 首先調查了表達不確定性的可能正式系統,包括概率度量、可能性度量和可信度量。他考慮了基於變化信息更新信念的過程,以及與貝葉斯定理的關係;這引出了對質性、量化和可信貝葉斯網絡的討論。他不僅考慮單一代理的不確定性,還考慮多代理框架中的不確定性。接著,Halpern 考慮了推理不確定性的正式邏輯系統。他討論了知識和信念;默認推理和默認的語義;對反事實的推理,以及結合概率和反事實;信念修正;一階模態邏輯;以及統計和信念。他在每章的結尾包含了一系列練習題。
**目錄:**
- 前言
- 1 介紹與概述
- 2 表達不確定性
- 3 更新信念
- 4 獨立性與貝葉斯網絡
- 5 期望
- 6 多代理系統
- 7 不確定性推理的邏輯
- 8 信念、默認與反事實
- 9 信念修正
- 10 一階模態邏輯
- 11 從統計到信念
- 12 最後的話
- 參考文獻
- 符號詞彙表
- 索引