Risk Assessment For Power Systems: Models, Methods, And Applications

Description:

Learn how to evaluate, forecast, and manage the risk of power system failures

Risk Assessment of Power Systems closes the gap between risk theory and real-world application. As a leading authority in power system risk evaluation for more than fifteen years and the author of a considerable number of papers and more than fifty technical reports on power system risk and reliability evaluation, Wenyuan Li is uniquely qualified to present this material. Following the models and methods developed from the author's hands-on experience, readers learn how to evaluate power system risk in planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities to keep risk at targeted levels.

The book's expert guidance and real-life examples enable readers to master even the most complex aspects of power system risk assessment, including:

• How to choose the component outage models that best reflect actual circumstances
• How to deal with uncertainty in statistical data
• How to select the appropriate risk evaluation methods to fit a specific case
• How to apply fundamentals and methodologies to each individual engineering issue

The book begins with a general introduction to concepts in power system risk, including system risk evaluation, data in risk evaluation, and unit interruption cost. Next, a thorough discussion of modeling and methodology is provided, including outage models of components and state enumeration techniques and Monte Carlo simulation methods for system risk assessment. The author then focuses on practical applications that reflect actual issues facing the utility industry. The application examples provided are based on the author's hands-on field experience. Finally, five appendices contain additional materials—mathematical elements, power system models, and probability distribution tables needed in power system risk assessment.

The consequences of power system failure have wide-ranging economic, environmental, and safety implications. With so much at stake, this book is essential reading for all engineers and managers in electric utilities who are tasked with system planning, operations, maintenance, and asset management. In addition, by bridging the gap between theory and application, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook for courses in power systems that will help students understand how risk theory is applied in the workplace.

 

Preface.

1 Introduction.

1.1 Risk in Power Systems.

1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment.

1.3 Outline of the Book.

2 Outage Models of System Components.

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 Models of Independent Outages.

2.3 Models of Dependent Outages.

2.4 Conclusions.

3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data.

3.3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data.

3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components.

3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution.

3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test.

3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models.

3.8 Conclusions.

4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Methods for Simple Systems.

4.3 Methods for Complex Systems.

4.4. Conclusions.

5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems.

5.1 Introduction.

5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems.

5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems.

5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations.

5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems.

5.6 Conclusions.

6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning.

6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach.

6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative.

6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria.

6.6 Conclusions.

7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning.

7.3 Risk Evaluation Method.

7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode.

7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculations.

7.6 Conclusions.

8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Procedure for Reliability Planning.

8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs.

8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators.

8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant.

8.6 Conclusions.

9 Selection of Substation Configurations.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 Load Curtailment Model.

9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach.

9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration.

9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations.

9.6 Conclusions.

10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM.

10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling.

10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance.

10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations.

10.6 Conclusions.

11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria.

11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method.

11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers.

11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors.

11.6 Conclusions.

12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 Basic Concept.

12.3 Calculation Methods.

12.4 Rate Design.

12.5 Application Example.

12.6 Conclusions.

13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods.

13.3 Procedure.

13.4 Examples.

13.5 Conclusions.

Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts.

A.1 Probability Calculation Rules.

A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution.

A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation.

A.4 Numerical Characteristics.

Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation.

B.1 General Concept.

B.2 Random Number Generators.

B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates.

B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation.

Appendix C Power-Flow Models.

C.1 AC Power-Flow Models.

C.2 DC Power-Flow Models.

Appendix D Optimization Algorithms.

D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming.

D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming.

Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables.

References.

Index.

About the Author.