Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition
暫譯: 成本不確定性分析的機率方法：系統工程觀點（第二版）
Garvey, Paul R., Book, Stephen A., Covert, Raymond P.
- 出版商: CRC
- 出版日期: 2020-12-18
- 售價: $2,420
- 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $2,299
- 語言: 英文
- 頁數: 528
- 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
- ISBN: 0367737426
- ISBN-13: 9780367737429
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商品描述
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to decision-makers, and the use of bivariate probability distributions to capture joint interactions between a system's cost and schedule. Analytical techniques from probability theory are stressed, along with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Numerous examples and case discussions illustrate the practical application of theoretical concepts.
While the original chapters from the first edition remain unchanged, this second edition contains new material focusing on the application of theory to problems encountered in practice. Highlights include the use of GERM to build development and production cost estimating relationships as well as the eSBM, which was developed from a need in the community to offer simplified analytical alternatives to advanced probability-based approaches. The book also lists the major technical works of the late Dr. Stephen A. Book, a mathematician and world-renowned cost analyst whose contributions advanced the theory and practice of cost risk analysis.
商品描述(中文翻譯)
《成本不確定性分析的機率方法：系統工程觀點（第二版）》為您提供了建模和測量工程系統成本不確定性所需的分析方法的全面基礎。這包括系統元素成本之間的相關性處理、如何向決策者呈現分析結果，以及使用雙變量機率分佈來捕捉系統成本與進度之間的聯合互動。書中強調了來自機率理論的分析技術，以及蒙地卡羅模擬方法。眾多範例和案例討論說明了理論概念的實際應用。
雖然第一版的原始章節保持不變，但第二版包含了新的材料，重點在於將理論應用於實際中遇到的問題。亮點包括使用 GERM 建立開發和生產成本估算關係，以及 eSBM，這是基於社群需求而開發的，旨在提供簡化的分析替代方案，以取代先進的基於機率的方法。書中還列出了已故的斯蒂芬·A·布克博士的主要技術著作，他是一位數學家和世界知名的成本分析師，其貢獻推進了成本風險分析的理論和實踐。
作者簡介
Paul R. Garvey is Chief Scientist for the Center for Acquisition and Management Sciences at The MITRE Corporation. He has extensive experience in the theory and application of risk-decision analytic methods to operations research problems in the system sciences domains. He is the author of the CRC Press books Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems (with C. Ariel Pinto) and Analytical Methods for Risk Management. He earned an A.B. and M.Sc. in pure and applied mathematics from Boston College and Northeastern University and a Ph.D. in engineering systems risk analysis from Old Dominion University.
Stephen A. Book (1941-2012) was a Distinguished Engineer in the Systems Engineering Division at the Aerospace Corporation, chief technical officer at Management Consulting and Research (MCR), and emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Dominguez Hills. A world-renowned cost analyst, Dr. Book produced innumerable contributions to the field and made his work accessible to professionals from a variety of academic and technical backgrounds. He earned an A.B., M.A., and Ph.D. in mathematics from Georgetown University, Cornell University, and the University of Oregon, respectively.
Raymond P. Covert is the founder of Covarus LLC, a boutique consulting firm specializing in engineering and economic modeling. He has over 30 years of experience in aerospace and defense engineering and is the author of a series of books on cost and schedule estimating. He has published more than 60 technical and tutorial presentations. He earned an Sc.B. in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an M.S. in electrical engineering from Loyola Marymount University.
作者簡介(中文翻譯)
保羅·R·加維是MITRE公司獲取與管理科學中心的首席科學家。他在風險決策分析方法的理論與應用方面擁有豐富的經驗，專注於系統科學領域的運籌學問題。他是CRC Press出版的書籍《工程企業系統中的高級風險分析》（與C. Ariel Pinto合著）和《風險管理的分析方法》的作者。他在波士頓學院和東北大學獲得純數學和應用數學的學士及碩士學位，並在老道明大學獲得工程系統風險分析的博士學位。
史蒂芬·A·布克（1941-2012）是航空公司系統工程部的傑出工程師，曾擔任管理諮詢與研究公司（MCR）的首席技術官，以及加州州立大學多明格斯山的數學名譽教授。作為世界知名的成本分析師，布克博士對該領域做出了無數貢獻，並使他的工作對來自各種學術和技術背景的專業人士可及。他分別在喬治城大學、康奈爾大學和俄勒岡大學獲得數學的學士、碩士和博士學位。
雷蒙德·P·科維特是Covarus LLC的創始人，這是一家專注於工程和經濟建模的精品諮詢公司。他在航空航天和國防工程方面擁有超過30年的經驗，並且是關於成本和進度估算的一系列書籍的作者。他已發表超過60篇技術和教學演示文稿。他在麻省理工學院獲得航空和航天工程的學士學位，並在洛約拉瑪利蒙大學獲得電機工程的碩士學位。
