Reconsidering the Limits to Growth: A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome

回顧1972年著名的《成長的極限》報告，本書在原報告五十週年之際，分析了世界體系至今所經歷的變化。在過去五十年中，這些極限的概念和理解已經顯著改變。本書強調，世界體系的演變已接近一個新的關鍵里程碑，進入一個根本新的歷史發展階段，舊有的經濟和社會技術不再像以前那樣高效運作，甚至開始產生反效果，這導致世界體系進入系統性危機。

本書討論了人類社會向一個尚未確定的新階段的過渡。對於全球情勢的分析和預測，都需要新的方法。本書基於一種綜合方法，包括世界體系、歷史和演化的視角，以及對社會的系統性觀點，其中一個子系統的變化會引起其他子系統的轉變。通過數學建模，本書定義了世界體系轉型的主要向量；對社會和世界體系所有主要子系統的發展進行詳細預測，並呈現從短期到超長期的變化視野；同時提出不同的發展情境以及如何實現過渡到最有利情境的建議。

本書將吸引羅馬俱樂部的成員和追隨者、政策制定者，以及來自各個學科的學者，這些人對於更好地理解世界體系的演變、全球未來、發展研究、氣候變遷和未來社會感興趣。

Viktor Sadovnichy is a Professor of physics and mathematics and the Rector of Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) since 1992, as well as a Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. His main research focuses on mathematics, mechanics, and computer science. Sadovnichy's research relates to the theory of differential operators and functional analysis, as well as mathematical modeling of long-term social and economic dynamics. He has obtained important theoretical and applied results related to the issues of dynamic simulation of controlled flights, in particular, of spacecraft and aircraft. The development of the world's first zero-gravity simulator for Earth conditions was based on this work.

Askar Akaev is the First President of the Kyrgyz Republic and a Foreign Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He works as Chief Research Professor at the Prigogine Institute for Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems at the Moscow State University (Russia). He further is an Academic Supervisor of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at HSE University, Moscow, (Russia). Askar Akaev has authored and co-authored over 300 scientific publications, including such monographs as Coherent Optical Computers (1977), Optical Methods of Information Processing (1983), Holographic Memory (1996), Selected Lectures on Optical Computers (1996), Economic Transition from the Point of View of a Physicist. A Mathematical Model of Emerging Economy (2000), Modeling and Forecasting the World Dynamics (2012), Quality of Education, Effectiveness of R&D, and Economic Growth. Quantitative Analysis and Mathematical Modeling (2016), among others.

Ilya Ilyin is a Professor and Head of the Department of Global Studies, as well as the Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies at Moscow State University (Russia). He is the author of more than 350 academic papers. Ilyin is the Chairman of the Presidium of the Societyfor Global Studies, President of the International Public Organization for the Promotion of Public Diplomacy, Scientific, Educational and Youth Cooperation "Eurasian Commonwealth", Chief Scientific Secretary of the International Academy of Global Studies, Chairman of the Russian Committee and Vice President of the Intergovernmental Council for the UNESCO Program "Management of Social Transformations - MOST", an honorary worker in the field of state youth policy and education, as well as Editor-in-Chief of the journal "Bulletin of Moscow University. Series 27. Global Studies and Geopolitics".

Sergey Malkov heads the Center for Long-Term Forecasting and Strategic Planning at the Moscow State University (Russia). He also works as a Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences and Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia). Malkov is the author of over 300 scholarly publications, including, among others: Social self-organization and historical process: possibilities of mathematical modeling (URSS, 2009), Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics (ISPI RAS, 2012, with V. A. Sadovnichy et. al), A new theory of the reproduction of capital: development and practical application (Nestor-Istoriya, 2016, together with V. I. Mayevsky and others), The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective (Springer, 2020, with David J. LePoire et. al).

Leonid Grinin is a Senior Research Professor at the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia), as well as a Senior Research Professor at the Oriental Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is co-editor of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as co-editor of the international almanacs History & Mathematics, Evolution, and Kondratieff Waves. He is the author of more than 600 publications, including 30 books in Russian, English, and Chinese. His current research focuses on comparative political studies, theory of revolution, political anthropology, global economy, global history, historical sociology, and futurology. In 2012 he was awarded the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Andrey Korotayev heads the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow (Russia). He further is a Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Oriental Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as at the Faculty of Global Studies of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia) and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. He has authored or co-authored over 650 scholarly publications, including books such as Ancient Yemen (Oxford University Press, 1995), World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective (The Edwin Mellen Press, 2004), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (URSS, 2006; with Daria Khaltorina and Artemy Malkov), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends (URSS, 2006; with Daria Khaltorina and Artemy Malkov), Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective (Springer, 2015; with Leonid Grinin), Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery (Springer, 2016; with Leonid Grinin), Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. World System and World Values Perspectives (Springer, 2019; with Leonid Grinin and Arno Tausch). He is a laureate of a Russian Science Support Foundation for 'The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Nomination (2006); in 2012 he was awarded the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Viktor Sadovnichy 是物理學和數學的教授，自1992年以來擔任俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學的校長，並且是俄羅斯科學院的正式成員。他的主要研究集中在數學、力學和計算機科學。Sadovnichy 的研究涉及微分算子理論和泛函分析，以及長期社會和經濟動態的數學建模。他在受控飛行的動態模擬問題上獲得了重要的理論和應用成果，特別是太空船和飛機的模擬。基於這項工作，開發了世界上第一個適用於地球條件的零重力模擬器。

Askar Akaev 是吉爾吉斯共和國的第一任總統，也是俄羅斯科學院的外籍正式成員。他在俄羅斯莫斯科國立大學的普里戈金複雜系統數學研究所擔任首席研究教授。此外，他還是莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的學術主管。Askar Akaev 已發表和合著超過300篇科學出版物，包括《相干光學計算機》（1977年）、《光學信息處理方法》（1983年）、《全息記憶》（1996年）、《光學計算機選講》（1996年）、《從物理學家的角度看經濟轉型：新興經濟的數學模型》（2000年）、《世界動態的建模與預測》（2012年）、《教育質量、研發效率與經濟增長：定量分析與數學建模》（2016年）等。

Ilya Ilyin 是全球研究系的教授及系主任，也是莫斯科國立大學全球研究學院的院長。他是350多篇學術論文的作者。Ilyin 是全球研究學會的常務委員會主席，國際公共外交促進組織的總裁，科學、教育和青年合作的「歐亞聯盟」的總裁，國際全球研究學院的首席科學秘書，聯合國教科文組織「社會轉型管理 - MOST」計劃的俄羅斯委員會主席及副總裁，並且是國家青年政策和教育領域的榮譽工作者，同時也是《莫斯科大學通訊：第27系列 全球研究與地緣政治》的主編。

Sergey Malkov 領導莫斯科國立大學的長期預測與戰略規劃中心。他同時擔任俄羅斯科學院經濟學研究所和莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的高級研究教授。Malkov 發表了超過300篇學術出版物，包括《社會自我組織與歷史過程：數學建模的可能性》（URSS，2009年）、《世界動態的建模與預測》（ISPI RAS，2012年，與 V. A. Sadovnichy 等人合著）、《資本再生的新理論：發展與實踐應用》（Nestor-Istoriya，2016年，與 V. I. Mayevsky 等人合著）、《21世紀的奇點與全球未來：大歷史的視角》（Springer，2020年，與 David J. LePoire 等人合著）等。

Leonid Grinin 是莫斯科高等經濟學院穩定性與風險分析中心的高級研究教授，同時也是俄羅斯科學院東方研究所的高級研究教授。他是國際期刊《社會演變與歷史》和《全球化研究期刊》的共同編輯，以及國際年鑑《歷史與數學》、《演變》和《康德拉季耶夫波》的共同編輯。他發表了超過600篇出版物，包括30本俄文和英文書籍。